Iteros — see it on real training

Your race

Thames Valley Marathon

42.20km · target 3:21:00 · 14 December 2026

days to go

Your next block

Predicted finish time

3:01:06

10th pct

3:15:36

Median

3:30:06

90th pct

68% of the distribution (shaded green) finishes at or before your goal

Goal probability

Runners Like You

Based on 200 marathon runners with similar profiles, your predicted finish range is 3:13 – 4:57.

You're in the 28th percentile for training volume among similar runners.

Runners who hit your goal time averaged 41km/week over a 12-week build.

Your races

Thames Valley Marathon42.20km · 3:21:00
2026-12-14 — in 56 days · your race — the soonest one ahead

Archived

Richmond Marathon42.20km · 3:21:00
2026-08-29 — 51 days ago

Archived means cancelled or abandoned, not finished — a race you ran stays on the list. Nothing is deleted, and restoring puts it back.

Your goalWhat are you running for?Pick one. You can change it any time in You. A race is one goal among several; the app works fully with any of them.

Start runningFrom your first runs

Break a timeThe next step comes first: for this block if it’s within 4% of your estimate, otherwise as a longer goal

5KFrom 21:26 now

Sub-20, a longer goal. Longer goals carry no odds yet: a time goal has no date to read them against.

10KFrom 44:43 now

Sub-42, a longer goal. Longer goals carry no odds yet: a time goal has no date to read them against.

Half marathonFrom 1:34:20 now

Sub-1:30, a longer goal. Longer goals carry no odds yet: a time goal has no date to read them against.

MarathonFrom about 3:16 now

Sub-3:15, suggested for this block. Longer goals carry no odds yet: a time goal has no date to read them against.

Go furtherA first at a new distance

QualifyA qualifying time

Get fitterNo race needed

A raceA race you’ve booked

Component breakdown

Estimated fitness for the goal

42%

Threshold gap

60%

Durability at race distance

85%

Structural readiness

17%

Long run readiness

100%

Consistency

75%

Time readiness

60%

Terrain readiness

—

Weakest-link penalty applied: Structural readiness at 17% pulls the overall probability down to 34% of the weighted average — a marathon needs every input sufficient at once, not just a good average.

Probability history

Course analysis

Tell us about the course and we'll compare it against your real training data.

Thames Valley Marathon

Temperature

You've trained at an average of 12°C. At the course's expected 18°C, expect your heart rate to run about +3bpm higher than usual at the same effort — pace by effort, not by your usual splits, especially in the back half.

Hills

Not enough hilly training data yet to estimate this course's specific time cost — run some hills to calculate.

Distance & terrain readiness

Your longest run to date is 42.2km — 100% of this course's 42.2km distance. That run's climbing (2m/km) is a reasonable match for this course's profile.

Course profile

Rolling terrain adds small, repeated pace surges that don't show up in a single elevation-gain number — expect slightly more variability in your splits than a flat course.

Surface

Road racing — no surface-specific adjustment needed beyond what's already reflected in your training paces.

Predicted pace by block

Estimated from your target pace, this course's elevation profile, and your durability score — a heuristic, not a guarantee.

0-5km